Russian forces are poised to finally capture Pokrovsk, a symbolically important victory with a heavy cost
Russian forces appear to be on the brink of finally seizing the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a symbolic victory that President Vladimir Putin has been pursuing for 21 months at an increasingly heavy cost.
Fighting inside the city has intensified in the past few days, after Russian troops successfully infiltrated it. The fall of Pokrovsk – the strategic value of which has already been greatly diminished but would nevertheless represent the biggest win for Moscow since 2023 – now seems almost inevitable, according to those on the ground.
While Kyiv denied Russian claims that Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk have already been surrounded, saying on Wednesday that active operations stopping the Russian advance were still ongoing, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground have described an increasingly grim reality.
“The situation is difficult, with all types of fighting going on, firefights in urban areas, and shelling with all types of weapons,” one battalion commander told CNN, speaking on the condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“We are almost surrounded, but we are used to it,” he said. Another soldier, who also asked for his name to be withheld for safety reasons, told CNN the Russian military continues to press forward with large numbers of men.
“The intensity of their movements is so great that (Ukrainian) drone operators simply cannot keep up with the pace. The Russians often move in groups of three, counting on the fact that two will be destroyed, but one will still reach the city and gain a foothold there. About a hundred such groups can pass through in a day,” a soldier from the Ukrainian Peaky Blinders drone unit told CNN.
Symbolic battle
The claim that Russia is willing to sacrifice two soldiers in order to get one through might seem perplexing – but it tallies up with observations made by international researchers who have noted a very high number of Russian casualties around Pokrovsk, even though taking over the city won’t make much difference on the ground.
That’s because the battle for Pokrovsk is no longer a fight for a strategically important logistics hub. Instead, it has now morphed into a symbolic battle.
“From (a) battlefield perspective, it doesn’t make sense,” said George Barros, who leads the Russia and Geospatial Intelligence teams at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.
Pokrovsk was long seen as a key city for the Ukrainians, because of its road and rail connections. It sits on a junction of several major roads, leading to Donetsk and Kostyantynivka in the east and Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia to the west.
Russian forces are making a
concerted push to take Pokrovsk. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, capturing it is “the number-one goal” for the Russians in the Donetsk region. (
Anadolu Ajansı)
Recent assessments indicate Russia may already control
60-70% of the city and its outskirts. (
The Washington Post)
Russia has reportedly massed a very large force in the sector (estimates of up to ~170,000 personnel in the broader front area) in an effort to overrun Pokrovsk. (
United24 Media)
Ukraine is actively attempting to hold the city, launch counter-operations and keep supply lines open. The situation is described as “grinding” and costly. (
Euromaidan Press)
Why Pokrovsk matters
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Strategic hub: The city is important for logistics and supply routes in the Donetsk region. Losing it would open the path for Russian forces to press deeper. (Al Jazeera)
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Symbolic/propaganda value: For Moscow, capturing a long-resisting city like Pokrovsk would be used to bolster claims of progress and victory. Zelenskyy noted that Russia wants to “show success on the battlefield.” (saudigazette)
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Operational implications: If Pokrovsk falls or is largely overrun, it could force Ukraine to divert resources, potentially weakening other sectors. (mint)
The cost and risks
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It’s clear that Russia is willing to pay a high cost in manpower and equipment to achieve this – and Ukraine has warned of high casualties on both sides. (The Washington Post)
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Urban fighting in Pokrovsk implies high civilian risk, infrastructure damage, and a protracted battle rather than a quick capture.
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Even if Russia takes the city, holding it will likely be difficult and expensive given Ukrainian will to resist and the historic challenges of occupying urban areas.
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From Ukraine’s side: deciding whether to hold at all costs or withdraw to preserve forces is becoming a painful dilemma. (The Washington Post)
My assessment
Yes — it is very likely that Russia will capture or at least claim the capture of Pokrovsk in the coming weeks or months unless Ukraine receives a major force-injection or changes the dynamics. The balance of forces, the logistical pressure, and the momentum seem to favor the attacker.
However — it is not guaranteed, and it will not be easy. The cost will be heavy, both in human lives and material, and the strategic gain may come with long-term burdens for Russia.
In short: Russia is poised to capture Pokrovsk, but “finally capturing” it is not a simple switch; it remains a hard, contested fight with high risk.
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